الرئيسية
من طرف The next regional war?i
Relations between Turkey and Syria reached a new low in early October after a Syrian mortar killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akçakale.i
Although neither country appears to want a war,events in recent weeks suggests some kind of limited military confrontation could be imminent.i
The cross-border incident in Şanliurfa province was the final straw for Turkey. Since the start of the 18-month long uprising,Syrian fire has repeatedly hit Turkish territory in an attempt to target Free Syrian Army (FSA) positions along the border.i
The two former allies have been at loggerheads ever since Turkey called on Assad to step down in 2011.i
Turkey has played an active role in supporting the Syrian uprising,and hosts up to 100,000 Syrian refuges.Until September it also hosted the FSA headquarters.i
For its part,the Syrian government has repeatedly accused Turkey of funding terrorist groups operating in Syria.i
These tensions previously reached a low point in August,when Syria shot down a Turkish jet,allegedly over Syrian territory.i
Details of the incident are still unclear but in response the Turkish armed forces announced they would respond with force to any incursions on its territory.i
On 3 October,the Turkish army did just that.Since then Turkey has repeatedly targeted artillery fire at Syrian military positions in and around Tel Abyad,a small town across the border from Akçakale.News reports from Tel Abyad in late September suggested the crossing was in the hands of the FSA.i
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The cross-border incident initially appeared – as the Syrian government claimed– accidental.But sporadic shelling of the town over the next week suggests it was a deliberate attempt to provoke Turkey into a military response.i
A confrontation with Turkey may suit Syria’s interests at home,and allow it to argue that the civil war is a product of external meddling rather than a domestic issue.i
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Turkey has one of the largest armies in the world – with bases all along the Syrian border – and has not hesitated to defend its territory,most recently by carrying out regular attacks on PKK bases in northern Iraq.Syria appears to be playing a dangerous game if it does want to provoke a Turkish response.i
The Turkish parliament also demonstrated that it is unwilling to stand by when it passed a bill allowing the army to conduct operations inside Syria.This means that a Turkish military incursion into Syria could happen at any time.i
For its part,the Syrian army seems mostly caught up in fighting in Aleppo and Homs while also maintaining control of Damascus.i
We have spoken to Syrian military sources who believe that the FSA is winning in the north of the country.At the time of writing,Syria only controlled one of its many border crossings with Turkey
This suggests that Syria’s military options are probably limited in the event of a Turkish incursion.Even so,its continued shelling into Turkey seems to imply that Syria could resist such a move,even if the Turkish army would likely overwhelm such resistance fairly swiftly.i
Turkey still seems undecided,despite bombastic comments from Prime Minister Erdogan. Indeed,several opinion polls in recent weeks suggest that the Turkish public are less enthusiastic about a war.i
Similarly,NATO has given Turkey its verbal support but at present appears reluctant to back a military response.i
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The international community in general remains undecided about a military option, probably because the Syrian conflict is becoming increasingly fragmented and it is unclear whether an intervention would decide the outcome of the conflict,or if it would be the best humanitarian solution.i
The upcoming US presidential elections on 6 November could be a turning point,allowing the next US president the political space to make what will likely be an unpopular decision on intervention in Syria although present indicators suggest such a move is unlikely.i
In the meantime,the situation on the border will likely become increasingly untenable.This may mean that Turkey will take even stronger steps to prevent cross-border fire.The government has repeatedly mooted the idea of a demilitarised zone in northern Syria.i
A more probable scenario,given the on-going fighting between the Syrian army and the FSA in northern Syria,is that another incident like that at Akçakale could lead to a more limited Turkish incursion intonorthern Syria.i
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By Hannah Poppy
Intelligence Analyst,London
........
Syria & Turkey
riskadvisory.net
Relations between Turkey and Syria reached a new low in early October after a Syrian mortar killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akçakale.i
Although neither country appears to want a war,events in recent weeks suggests some kind of limited military confrontation could be imminent.i
The cross-border incident in Şanliurfa province was the final straw for Turkey. Since the start of the 18-month long uprising,Syrian fire has repeatedly hit Turkish territory in an attempt to target Free Syrian Army (FSA) positions along the border.i
The two former allies have been at loggerheads ever since Turkey called on Assad to step down in 2011.i
Turkey has played an active role in supporting the Syrian uprising,and hosts up to 100,000 Syrian refuges.Until September it also hosted the FSA headquarters.i
For its part,the Syrian government has repeatedly accused Turkey of funding terrorist groups operating in Syria.i
These tensions previously reached a low point in August,when Syria shot down a Turkish jet,allegedly over Syrian territory.i
Details of the incident are still unclear but in response the Turkish armed forces announced they would respond with force to any incursions on its territory.i
On 3 October,the Turkish army did just that.Since then Turkey has repeatedly targeted artillery fire at Syrian military positions in and around Tel Abyad,a small town across the border from Akçakale.News reports from Tel Abyad in late September suggested the crossing was in the hands of the FSA.i
.........
The cross-border incident initially appeared – as the Syrian government claimed– accidental.But sporadic shelling of the town over the next week suggests it was a deliberate attempt to provoke Turkey into a military response.i
A confrontation with Turkey may suit Syria’s interests at home,and allow it to argue that the civil war is a product of external meddling rather than a domestic issue.i
......
Turkey has one of the largest armies in the world – with bases all along the Syrian border – and has not hesitated to defend its territory,most recently by carrying out regular attacks on PKK bases in northern Iraq.Syria appears to be playing a dangerous game if it does want to provoke a Turkish response.i
The Turkish parliament also demonstrated that it is unwilling to stand by when it passed a bill allowing the army to conduct operations inside Syria.This means that a Turkish military incursion into Syria could happen at any time.i
For its part,the Syrian army seems mostly caught up in fighting in Aleppo and Homs while also maintaining control of Damascus.i
We have spoken to Syrian military sources who believe that the FSA is winning in the north of the country.At the time of writing,Syria only controlled one of its many border crossings with Turkey
This suggests that Syria’s military options are probably limited in the event of a Turkish incursion.Even so,its continued shelling into Turkey seems to imply that Syria could resist such a move,even if the Turkish army would likely overwhelm such resistance fairly swiftly.i
Turkey still seems undecided,despite bombastic comments from Prime Minister Erdogan. Indeed,several opinion polls in recent weeks suggest that the Turkish public are less enthusiastic about a war.i
Similarly,NATO has given Turkey its verbal support but at present appears reluctant to back a military response.i
.........
The international community in general remains undecided about a military option, probably because the Syrian conflict is becoming increasingly fragmented and it is unclear whether an intervention would decide the outcome of the conflict,or if it would be the best humanitarian solution.i
The upcoming US presidential elections on 6 November could be a turning point,allowing the next US president the political space to make what will likely be an unpopular decision on intervention in Syria although present indicators suggest such a move is unlikely.i
In the meantime,the situation on the border will likely become increasingly untenable.This may mean that Turkey will take even stronger steps to prevent cross-border fire.The government has repeatedly mooted the idea of a demilitarised zone in northern Syria.i
A more probable scenario,given the on-going fighting between the Syrian army and the FSA in northern Syria,is that another incident like that at Akçakale could lead to a more limited Turkish incursion intonorthern Syria.i
....
By Hannah Poppy
Intelligence Analyst,London
........
Syria & Turkey
riskadvisory.net
