جـوهـرة الـونشريس

جوهرة الونشريس،،حيث يلتقي الحلم بالواقع،،
هنـا ستكـون سمـائي..سأتوسد الغيم..و أتلذذ بارتعاشاتي تحت المطــر..و أراقب العـالم بصخبه و سكونه و حزنه و سعـادته..
هنـا سأسكب مشاعري بجنون..هذيانا..و صورا..و حتى نغمــات..


انضم إلى المنتدى ، فالأمر سريع وسهل

جـوهـرة الـونشريس

جوهرة الونشريس،،حيث يلتقي الحلم بالواقع،،
هنـا ستكـون سمـائي..سأتوسد الغيم..و أتلذذ بارتعاشاتي تحت المطــر..و أراقب العـالم بصخبه و سكونه و حزنه و سعـادته..
هنـا سأسكب مشاعري بجنون..هذيانا..و صورا..و حتى نغمــات..

جـوهـرة الـونشريس

هل تريد التفاعل مع هذه المساهمة؟ كل ما عليك هو إنشاء حساب جديد ببضع خطوات أو تسجيل الدخول للمتابعة.
جـوهـرة الـونشريس

حـيث يلتـقي الـحلم بالـواقع


    Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i

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    Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i 7e99cbc882b2aa88afb53997d7f58ce04g
    عدد المساهمات : 4732
    تاريخ التسجيل : 21/11/2010
    الموقع : الأردن

    رأي Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i

    مُساهمة من طرف In The Zone الخميس يناير 24, 2013 3:16 pm

    The next regional war?i

    Relations between Turkey and Syria reached a new low in early October after a Syrian mortar killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akçakale.i
    Although neither country appears to want a war,events in recent weeks suggests some kind of limited military confrontation could be imminent.i

    The cross-border incident in Şanliurfa province was the final straw for Turkey. Since the start of the 18-month long uprising,Syrian fire has repeatedly hit Turkish territory in an attempt to target Free Syrian Army (FSA) positions along the border.i

    The two former allies have been at loggerheads ever since Turkey called on Assad to step down in 2011.i
    Turkey has played an active role in supporting the Syrian uprising,and hosts up to 100,000 Syrian refuges.Until September it also hosted the FSA headquarters.i


    For its part,the Syrian government has repeatedly accused Turkey of funding terrorist groups operating in Syria.i
    These tensions previously reached a low point in August,when Syria shot down a Turkish jet,allegedly over Syrian territory.i
    Details of the incident are still unclear but in response the Turkish armed forces announced they would respond with force to any incursions on its territory.i

    On 3 October,the Turkish army did just that.Since then Turkey has repeatedly targeted artillery fire at Syrian military positions in and around Tel Abyad,a small town across the border from Akçakale.News reports from Tel Abyad in late September suggested the crossing was in the hands of the FSA.i
    .........
    The cross-border incident initially appeared – as the Syrian government claimed– accidental.But sporadic shelling of the town over the next week suggests it was a deliberate attempt to provoke Turkey into a military response.i
    A confrontation with Turkey may suit Syria’s interests at home,and allow it to argue that the civil war is a product of external meddling rather than a domestic issue.i
    ......
    Turkey has one of the largest armies in the world – with bases all along the Syrian border – and has not hesitated to defend its territory,most recently by carrying out regular attacks on PKK bases in northern Iraq.Syria appears to be playing a dangerous game if it does want to provoke a Turkish response.i

    The Turkish parliament also demonstrated that it is unwilling to stand by when it passed a bill allowing the army to conduct operations inside Syria.This means that a Turkish military incursion into Syria could happen at any time.i

    For its part,the Syrian army seems mostly caught up in fighting in Aleppo and Homs while also maintaining control of Damascus.i
    We have spoken to Syrian military sources who believe that the FSA is winning in the north of the country.At the time of writing,Syria only controlled one of its many border crossings with Turkey

    This suggests that Syria’s military options are probably limited in the event of a Turkish incursion.Even so,its continued shelling into Turkey seems to imply that Syria could resist such a move,even if the Turkish army would likely overwhelm such resistance fairly swiftly.i

    Turkey still seems undecided,despite bombastic comments from Prime Minister Erdogan. Indeed,several opinion polls in recent weeks suggest that the Turkish public are less enthusiastic about a war.i
    Similarly,NATO has given Turkey its verbal support but at present appears reluctant to back a military response.i
    .........
    The international community in general remains undecided about a military option, probably because the Syrian conflict is becoming increasingly fragmented and it is unclear whether an intervention would decide the outcome of the conflict,or if it would be the best humanitarian solution.i
    The upcoming US presidential elections on 6 November could be a turning point,allowing the next US president the political space to make what will likely be an unpopular decision on intervention in Syria although present indicators suggest such a move is unlikely.i

    In the meantime,the situation on the border will likely become increasingly untenable.This may mean that Turkey will take even stronger steps to prevent cross-border fire.The government has repeatedly mooted the idea of a demilitarised zone in northern Syria.i
    A more probable scenario,given the on-going fighting between the Syrian army and the FSA in northern Syria,is that another incident like that at Akçakale could lead to a more limited Turkish incursion intonorthern Syria.i
    ....
    By Hannah Poppy
    Intelligence Analyst,London
    ........
    Syria & Turkey
    riskadvisory.net

    Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i Syria-and-Turkey-HP-JF-Amend4

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    رأي إلى متى يصمد بشار الأسد؟

    مُساهمة من طرف In The Zone الخميس يناير 24, 2013 3:31 pm


    [ندعوك للتسجيل في المنتدى أو التعريف بنفسك لمعاينة هذا الرابط]
    Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i 0,,16501979_401,00
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    رأي Moment of peril

    مُساهمة من طرف In The Zone الجمعة فبراير 01, 2013 1:24 pm

    Moment of peril

    Israel's air strikes against a convoy of lorries on the Syrian-Lebanese border could hardly have come at a more dangerous moment
    ........
    Israel had extremely good reasons to launch air strikes against a convoy of lorries on the Syrian-Lebanese border,presumed to be carrying advanced weapons to the Iranian-backed Hizbollah militia.i
    ........
    It believed the trucks were transporting Russian-made SA-17 surface-to-air missiles,able to shoot down aircraft up to a range of 30 miles.i
    This breached its “red line” warning to Damascus that it would not tolerate the presence of such weapons in the hands of people dedicated to the Jewish state’s destruction.i


    That said,the strikes could hardly have come at a more dangerous moment.Earlier this week,Nato deployed Patriot anti-missile batteries on Turkey’s border with Syria, while Israel established its own Iron Dome equivalent on its northern border.i
    This prompted a senior Iranian official to warn that it would regard an attack on Syria as an attack on Iran,while an embarrassed Russia accused Israel,in the wake of the air strikes,of a violation of the UN charter.i

    In the midst of this deepening crisis,David Cameron made a surprise visit to Libya (following his trip to Algeria),where he was greeted with plaudits and chants of “Allahu akhbar” – “God is great“ – after addressing police recruits.i
    His warm reception was a reward for Britain’s key role in overthrowing Colonel Gaddafi,when our Armed Forces spearheaded Nato’s military campaign alongside the French.i

    Whether British troops will be able to replicate this feat of arms will depend largely on how much the Government is prepared to spend on our military.Yet this remains unclear.i
    On Wednesday,the Prime Minister said that there would be no more defence cuts;yesterday,Downing Street was forced to backtrack on his apparent pledge.i
    With threats to our national security growing greater by the day,this is not a policy area that should be mired in confusion.i
    ........
    Friday 01 February 2013
    The Telegraph




    Israeli soldiers patrol their borders.A senior Iranian official has warned that any attack on Syria will be regarded as an attack on Iran
    ......
    Photo: AFP


    Syria & Turkey...The next regional war?i Israel_2467754b
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    رأي Syria ready to launch 'surprise' retaliation attack against Israel

    مُساهمة من طرف In The Zone الجمعة فبراير 01, 2013 1:37 pm

    Syria ready to launch 'surprise' retaliation attack against Israel

    Syria has threatened to retaliate for an Israeli air strike and its ally Iran said there will be repercussions for the Jewish state over the attack.i
    ........
    Syria ready to launch 'surprise' retaliation attack against Israel
    Syria has threatened to retaliate for an Israeli air strike and its ally Iran said there will be repercussions for the Jewish state over the attack.i

    .......
    Syria declared it was ready to launch a "surprise" retaliation attack against Israel yesterday as Bashar al-Assad's allies Russia and Iran both condemned air strikes on a suspected weapons shipment near Damascus.i

    As tensions mounted following the Israeli attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday,the Obama administration warned Syria not to transfer weapons to Hizbollah,thereby "further destabilising the region".i

    Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon,Ali Abdul-Karim Ali,said Damascus "has the option and the capacity to surprise in retaliation" and that it was up to the relevant authorities to prepare the time and place for action.i

    The foreign ministry in Damascus earlier lodged an official complaint with the United Nations over the attack – part of a wave of incursions that was launched to destroy an alleged weapons shipment to Hizbollah.i

    The bombing campaign on military targets around Damascus and the Lebanese border came after weeks of growing concern within Israel that Syria's disintegration poses a direct threat to its security.i
    .........
    The Lebanese government reported a series of violations of its airspace by Israeli jets on Tuesday and United Nations observers said the action continued into the early hours of Wednesday.i

    Initially the raid was reported to have involved a convoy carrying air defence systems across the border,but Syrian state television said yesterday that two people were killed in a raid on the Jamraya scientific research centre near Damascus.i

    Israeli leaders have vowed to prevent Hizbollah,the Iran-backed Lebanese terror outfit,gaining access to Syrian missiles and to ensure that stockpiles of chemical weapons do not fall into the hands of Islamic extremists.i

    But the attacks have nonetheless been criticised as a unilateral action that violated the UN charter.i
    .........
    Officials in Moscow,which has maintained an alliance with the Assad regime despite the descent into civil war and widespread international condemnation,expressed "deep concern" over the attacks.i

    If this information is confirmed,then we are dealing with unprovoked attacks on targets on the territory of a sovereign state that violates the UN Charter and is unacceptable,and whatever the motivation,is not justified,the foreign ministry said."We are taking immediate steps to clarify the situation in all its details."i
    ........
    Iran's deputy foreign minister,Hossein Amir Abdollahian,warned the "Zionist regime's attack on the outskirts of Damascus will have grave consequences".i

    The Arab League also spoke out against Israel's intervention in the conflict even though it has suspended Damascus.i

    This Israeli aggression is a clear violation of the territory of an Arab state and of its sovereignty,going against the UN charter and the rules of international law,said Nabil al-Arabi.i
    .......
    Former Israeli security officials said an apparent shipment to Hizbollah forced the country to take action.i
    Experts believe it is likely that action was taken against military targets to send a message that Israel was ready to act when dangers emerged.i

    Wednesday's strike indicates that Israel's concern has been vindicated. Russian systems have been transferred to Hizbollah,said Brig Gen Sholo Brom,a former director general of strategy for the Israeli military.i

    I have just now seen information describing a combined strike.The target was an institution close to Damascus where trucks were being loaded with arms bound for Hizbollah.The convoy that was attacked was almost certainly driving away from this institution.i

    Tzachi Hanegbi,an Israeli MP allied to Benjamin Netanyahu,the prime minister,said air strikes are not enough to counter the threat of Hizbollah obtaining sophisticated weaponry from Syria.i

    Israel's preference would be if a Western entity would control these weapons systems," Hanegbi said."But because it appears the world is not prepared to do what was done in Libya or other places,then Israel finds itself like it has many times in the past facing a dilemma that only it knows how to respond to.i
    ..........
    Michael Ellemann,a director of the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank,said the incident showed Damascus may be bartering its most sophisticated weapons technologies for help from Hizbollah and Iran to fight the rebels.i

    Israel is engaged in a kind of messaging to Iran that it is prepared to take steps against Iran's proxies as the Syrian regime collapses,he said.i

    Russian commentators said the air strike represented the intervention of Israel in the Syrian civil war on behalf of the rebels.One security blogger said that Israel was now lined up with states,such as Turkey and Qatar against Russia in seeking the removal of the Assad regime.i

    Israel has decided to intervene in the Syrian conflict on the side of the opposition,wrote one commentator.i
    ..........
    US vice president,Joe Biden,will discuss the situation in Syria with Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister,and Moaz al-Khatib,leader of the opposition Syrian National Coalition at a meeting in Munich tomorrow (SAT).i
    ........
    The Telegraph
    By Phoebe Greenwood,in Jerusalem,Roland Oliphant and Damien McElroy
    3:25PM GMT 31 Jan 2013




    An Israeli post office worker shows a child how to put on a gas mask at a distribution station in East Jerusalem.Israel remains on high alert after Syria threatened retaliation for an air strike on what Israel said was a weapons convoy heading for Lebanon Photo: GETTY

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